Working Papers

(with Lisette Briones, Evgeny Gushchin and Victoria Chiseliov)  |  Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Development Studies

This paper studies how the expansion of formal banking affects interest rates in informal credit markets. Using the Reserve Bank of India's 2005 Branch Authorisation Policy, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in bank branch expansion across districts in a fuzzy regression discontinuity design.

We find that moneylender interest rates decline by approximately 19% in treated districts five to eight years after the policy. The results are consistent with increased competition from formal banks reducing the market power of informal lenders, with limited evidence supporting a dominant adverse selection mechanism.